A blog focusing on politics in Central Illinois.

Sunday, February 27, 2005

The 87th

Since someone made a ridiculous statement in the comments to the extent of Tate to Mitchell to Caulkins referring to Mike Tate Bill Mitchell and Dan Caulkins as state reps, and a future state rep. I thought we should take a look at the 87th. I think at this point Ray LaHood is serious about running for governor, mainly by the fact that he is doing everything a candidate for governor does. If Ray were to run for governor in the primary I am not sure whether he would run for his house seat as well, but let us assume he would not due that because he is hell bent on being the first lebanese governor of Illinois. Now where does his seat go.
I believe, and correct me if I'm wrong, but the two state rep.'s that live in his district are Bill Mitchell and Aaron Schock. They would have to be considered as the first obvious successors, however since Schock has a big pink target drawn on his back by the house dem's he'll be battling just to stay on as a state rep. This should leave Bill Mitchell as the obvious choice to succeed Ray LaHood. However, I think that is an assumption that is wrong.
I believe if Mitchell were to run he would have a long road ahead of him, the biggest hurdle being name recognition. Living in one of the most distant points away from the population center of LaHood's seat is a definite setback. It should be no suprise to anyone that Mitchell has visited and held town hall meetings in every town in his district no matter how small over his last term. Finally there is the ugliest hurdle for Mitchell to face, and I believe we all know what that hurdle is. The DUI Mitchell recieved recently must be viewed as a giant setback to his political aspirations. I believe it is safe to say there is a videotape out there of this arrest, and someone is holding onto it for good reason. At this point its the best for his district and for himself to stay in the houe and move up the ranks of the HRO and into the House Leadership.
So if not Mitchell, then who becomes the obvious question. Lightner mentioned that LaHood might possibly pull a Bob Michel and hand off his congressional seat to his chief of staff, much like Michel did to him. At this point I think its safe to say its a toss up, I'll be able to give you more insight after the Peoria Mayoral election. Mainly because the Mayor of Peoria would ahve to be viewed as a serious contender himself. But, what are your views? Who do you think gets to pull the golden ticket and ascend? Will Mitchell take the plunge?